YESTERDAY'S murder of two RUC officers by the IRA was wicked, but from the terrorists' viewpoint entirely rational. It had two main purposes. First, to educate Tony Blair about the enduring realities of Irish politics, especially after what they regarded as an outrageously pro-unionist speech in Belfast last month: in this address he had effectively deprived republicans of even a fig-leaf of hope that there might be a united Ireland in their lifetimes. The second objective of this atrocity in Lurgan was to provoke a violent response from loyalists, so as to radicalise opinion in the Irish Republic in the run-up to Drumcree. Both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness now spend much of their time in the south, and they are determined that citizens of the republic do not relapse into scepticism about their intentions. They have been worried by the bad publicity republicans have received on the first anniversary of the murder of Garda Jerry McCabe by the IRA in Limerick,and by the surprising adeptness of moderate elements within the Orange Order who have sought reasonable compromise over this year's march at Drumcree.
Who can say with certainty that the IRA will not profit from such cynical calculations? The history of Northern Ireland in the past quarter century has been one of atrocity, followed by ritual condemnation, followed by renewed political initiatives which never would have been contemplated but for that violence. This pattern was exemplified by the fall of Stormont in 1972, the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 and the "peace process" itself, in which no constitutional outcome was excluded. In short, violence pays. Mr Blair, who has had no difficulty in recognising how weak the Conservatives were in other areas, should break with this counter-productive approach. He should do so not merely to seem tough, although it is interesting to note from opinion polls that the sole area where the public had reservations about his policies were the civil servants' discussions with Sinn Fein; but also because there is nothing very progressive about appeasing the forces of radicalethnic nationalism. The end of the Cold War and events in Bosnia ought to have changed the perspective of the centre-Left on such matters.
Simply ending officials' discussions with Sinn Fein/IRA is not enough. The first step he must take is to review all prisoner releases and transfers. In practice, most terrorist offenders serve farcically short amounts of time in Northern Ireland's overly-lax jails. The law-abiding have little confidence in the criminal justice system, though not for the reasons which human rights groups usually talk about. The second is to raise the Army's profile in the province, possibly with the deployment of extra troops. The third is to signal that he will allow the Orangemen to exercise their traditional right to march in some form at Drumcree. Anything less, and there is a very serious danger that loyalist terrorists will take matters into their own hands, with potentially unfathomable consequences.
